MD 0781 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OK...NORTHWEST AR...SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017
Areas affected...Northeast OK...Northwest AR...Southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191913Z - 192045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually increase in intensity through
late afternoon. Isolated large hail, damaging winds, and some
tornado threat can be expected.
DISCUSSION...Leading edge of early-day MCS has progressed into
northeast OK and diurnal influences appear to be aiding recent
upward evolution of this activity from southern Mayes to Muskogee
Counties. Downstream, buoyancy has yet to increase appreciably
across the Ozark Plateau due to overnight convective influences, but
partial sunshine appears to be modifying this rain-cooled air mass.
Numerous showers have developed across the southern two thirds of AR
depicting the southern edge of this more stable air mass. Even so,
LLJ should strengthen over the next few hours and further
modification is expected across the Ozark Plateau. For these
reasons there is increasing confidence that convection across
northeast OK will not weaken but continue in a linear north-south
fashion as it propagates east. Large hail and damaging winds are
the greatest risk but isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36859482 37589371 37519169 36359137 35669231 35189476